I guarantee the Olympics have a higher favorability rating than Trump, the GOP, or the DNC. "Only" 35-49% of Americans watched the Paris Olympics (based on different pollsters). By comparison, only 6-7% of Americans watch an NFL game every week (75% for the Super Bowl but I feel like that's different). In 2015, Fox Sports poll said 89% of Americans wanted the US to host the Olympics.
Some MAGA would go along with Trump but most Americans love America and a large proportion like watching them kick ass at the Olympics.
I disagree. Not everything he does is genius political jujitsu. Over and over again we see that his overreach results in massive backlash, and I suspect this would be no different.
This is my favorite article you’ve written. I had never thought about how the current administration’s antics would affect the Olympics 😳. Such a shame 🤦🏻♂️
Rodger is right that the IOC (and many of the sport governing bodies like FIFA, FINA, World Athletics, etc.) has no qualms about palling around with dictators. Repressive social policies have not kept World Athletics from hosting World Championships in China, Russia, Qatar, and Hungary, just in the last dozen years. I think Rodger is also right that the free transit of athletes for the Games is the bright line the IOC can't allow to be crossed.
So... I think the interesting document here would be the hosting agreement, the binding contract between the hosts and the IOC, and I don't know if those are public. (I'm also unsure to what degree the hosting country/city are bound by the hosting agreement, or if it's a commitment the LOC makes in undertaking to lobby their city/country.)
But my understanding is that part of the hosting agreement is that an Olympic credential, issued by or authorized by the IOC, has the authority of an entry visa for the duration of the Games and some duration before/after. (In 2008 my press credential was delivered to my home, and enabled me to enter China without a visa; when I returned for the 2015 World Championship, I had to explain on my visa application that yes, I had visited China before, but no, I hadn't been issued a visa.)
Violating that part of the hosting agreement would absolutely raise chaos with the Games, but by the time it happened (happens!) we would be mere months from the Games with too little time to change anything. And the Trump administration as we've seen it in the past six months has been far too chaotic to be trusted to stick to what they SAY they'll do.
The IOC doesn't like things to come down to high-stakes confrontation, particularly since the boycotts of the early 1980s; they prefer to solve problems well in advance, before they can become crises. They'll be working back-channel soft diplomacy very vigorously over the next 2-3 years to get the most assurance they practically can that the hosting agreement will be honored. In my mind the problem the IOC can't solve is the erratic impulsiveness which is Trump; he can't be trusted to stick to a deal unless there is a specific pressure to hold him to it. They will need to find that pressure, and apply it. Otherwise the risk is that of a Games hamstrung by effective boycotts of a hodgepodge of countries, which looks bad for both the USA AND the IOC.
Should the games be taken away the City of Los Angeles and State of California would be the biggest losers, which I'm sure pleases Trump.
We don’t deserve to host the Olympics. That said, I suspect it would actually benefit Trump politically if the IOC pulled out.
I guarantee the Olympics have a higher favorability rating than Trump, the GOP, or the DNC. "Only" 35-49% of Americans watched the Paris Olympics (based on different pollsters). By comparison, only 6-7% of Americans watch an NFL game every week (75% for the Super Bowl but I feel like that's different). In 2015, Fox Sports poll said 89% of Americans wanted the US to host the Olympics.
Some MAGA would go along with Trump but most Americans love America and a large proportion like watching them kick ass at the Olympics.
Count me in that cohort! :)
I disagree. Not everything he does is genius political jujitsu. Over and over again we see that his overreach results in massive backlash, and I suspect this would be no different.
I don’t know… it would be another convenient foil, more evidence that “they” are out to get “us.”
This is the kind of grievance that Trump seems very good at. And I don’t subscribe to any notion that he’s always a political genius. Not at all.
For MAGA types, sure. But most of America isn't MAGA.
Total load of shit.
Every. Single. Word.
This is my favorite article you’ve written. I had never thought about how the current administration’s antics would affect the Olympics 😳. Such a shame 🤦🏻♂️
Rodger is right that the IOC (and many of the sport governing bodies like FIFA, FINA, World Athletics, etc.) has no qualms about palling around with dictators. Repressive social policies have not kept World Athletics from hosting World Championships in China, Russia, Qatar, and Hungary, just in the last dozen years. I think Rodger is also right that the free transit of athletes for the Games is the bright line the IOC can't allow to be crossed.
So... I think the interesting document here would be the hosting agreement, the binding contract between the hosts and the IOC, and I don't know if those are public. (I'm also unsure to what degree the hosting country/city are bound by the hosting agreement, or if it's a commitment the LOC makes in undertaking to lobby their city/country.)
But my understanding is that part of the hosting agreement is that an Olympic credential, issued by or authorized by the IOC, has the authority of an entry visa for the duration of the Games and some duration before/after. (In 2008 my press credential was delivered to my home, and enabled me to enter China without a visa; when I returned for the 2015 World Championship, I had to explain on my visa application that yes, I had visited China before, but no, I hadn't been issued a visa.)
Violating that part of the hosting agreement would absolutely raise chaos with the Games, but by the time it happened (happens!) we would be mere months from the Games with too little time to change anything. And the Trump administration as we've seen it in the past six months has been far too chaotic to be trusted to stick to what they SAY they'll do.
The IOC doesn't like things to come down to high-stakes confrontation, particularly since the boycotts of the early 1980s; they prefer to solve problems well in advance, before they can become crises. They'll be working back-channel soft diplomacy very vigorously over the next 2-3 years to get the most assurance they practically can that the hosting agreement will be honored. In my mind the problem the IOC can't solve is the erratic impulsiveness which is Trump; he can't be trusted to stick to a deal unless there is a specific pressure to hold him to it. They will need to find that pressure, and apply it. Otherwise the risk is that of a Games hamstrung by effective boycotts of a hodgepodge of countries, which looks bad for both the USA AND the IOC.