The Daily Cinderella: It's bleak out there
It's been the chalkiest men's NCAA Tournament in almost a decade. There haven't even been any buzzer-beaters or game-winners. Let's try to squeeze some joy from the gloom.
Day 2. Supplies already running low. There have been no upsets and no buzzer-beaters. Many of our friends have already fallen. We have been forced to ration 12-seeds beating 5-seeds to survive but I fear it is no use.
Duke looms.
Today’s edition of The Daily Cinderella tries to squeeze some joy from the gloom. Subscribe and maybe things will be better in tomorrow’s edition:
Your Daily Cinderella: … Nobody
Ah, we had a bleak one this year. For the first time since 2017 and only the sixth time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, the 16 top-seeded teams in the men’s NCAA Tournament advanced to the second round. All four 16-seeds lost, all four 15-seeds lost, all four 14-seeds lost, and all-four 13-seeds lost.
Small schools were limited to brief moments of resistance. Like Robert Morris deciding to make a memory on the last shot of a season seconds from ending:
Luckily Jarin Stevenson’s ankles are not actually broken, and he’ll be able to play in the rest of the tournament.
And after Norfolk State’s coach complained about the 28-point spread… he wanted everybody to know his team covered in a 26-point loss.
(You know I bet NSU +28.5 as soon as the coach talking about the spread. Cash it.)
And so, the greatest prolonged run of upsets in men’s NCAA Tournament history. The last time we had a full chalk year like this, a 16-seed had never beaten a 1-seed. Since then, it’s happened twice. The last time we had a full chalk year like this, a 15-seed had only made the Sweet 16 once. It happened back to back to back from 2021 to 2023. We’ve been so spoiled for upsets that things like 14-seed Abilene Christian beating Texas in 2021 barely register.
I’ve seen a few takes about how the transfer portal and NIL have made it impossible for smaller teams to compete. I’m going to push back on that. We’ve had so many great upsets since the dawn of NIL in 2020-21, and over in college football, the transfer portal era has brought about some surprising results, like Good Indiana and everything Deion Sanders has done. Of course, things are changing quickly, and it’s possible the bigger schools have got it figured out now. We’ll have to wait and see whether this becomes the new normal.
And hey. We’ve still got McNeese and Drake.
Biggest “Upset”: Colorado State
I know what you’re saying: But Rodger! A 12-seed did upset a 5-seed yesterday! Colorado State beat Memphis! Doesn’t that mean anything anymore?
But this was, quite literally, not an upset. The Rams were favored by as many as 3 points at sportsbooks. Part of that is because Memphis added all-conference point guard Tyrese Hunter to an already-long injury report. Part of that is because Colorado State was just a better team, with a higher Kenpom ranking (44 vs. 56), a captivating star (you have to watch Nique Clifford), and a 10-game win streak. They were the better team, unless you listened to the selection committee.
A series of screenshots they can never take from us
Robert Morris, 65, Alabama, 64
Bryant, 24, Michigan State, 23
Buzzer-Beater of the Day:
Oh yeah, there also haven’t been any game-winning shots yet. Best I can do is this layup Vanderbilt to force overtime after ending the game on a 10-1 run…
but then Vandy lost in OT. Literally nothing good is happening in these tournaments.
Bummer-Beater of the Day: A game-losing charge
It was exactly the scenario referees dream about when they’re growing up: The opportunity to call a game-changing charge in the closing seconds of an NCAA Tournament game.
Trailing by one with 30 seconds left, they gave the ball to their star freshman point guard, Britt Prince, who had been the catalyst in helping Nebraska erase a 9-point deficit in the second half. But when Prince drove, Louisville’s Jayda Curry stepped up.
I gotta say, the call looks good. Prince needed to pull up for an uncontested go-ahead 8-footer instead of keeping her head down and rumbling forward. But the Huskers only got as far as they did because of Prince’s decision-making.
It was the fifth foul on Prince, and the second charge on Prince in the final two minutes, ending her rookie season. She had to sit on the sideline and watch the closing seconds, and it looked like she was trying not to cry… and failing. The Huskers actually got a pretty good look at a game-tying three moments later, but it rimmed out and Louisville won.
Biggest, Stupidest Idiot: Your Boy Rodger
Every year I make a video projecting upsets. I went 0-3 this year.
On the one hand, there was nothing I could’ve done—my gimmick is that I pick a 13-seed, a 14-seed, and a 15-seed every year. All the 13-seeds, 14-seeds, and 15-seeds lost this year.
On the other hand…. damn, my guys sucked out there. Yale, Troy, and Wofford all trailed for basically the entire game and lost big. Troy’s night can be defined by this play where one of their players threw the ball out of bounds off their own teammate, who was simultaneously getting called for a flagrant foul.
Today’s basketball life lesson: Keep shooting
Saint Mary’s forgot how to shoot basketballs for the most important stretch of the season. In the conference semifinals, they shot 2-for-13 from three. In the conference championship game, they shot 0-for-16, losing to Gonzaga because of it. And in their first round matchup against Vandy, they started the game 3-for-20 from deep, trailing by as much as 12 in the second half.
That’s a 5-for-49 stretch over 110 minutes of basketball. 5 makes, 44 misses. They were hitting threes at the same rate 15-seeds beat 2-seeds. (Not an exaggeration. 10.2 percent vs. 9.3 percent.)Those are “5th graders participating in a scrimmage at halftime of an NBA game because the team didn’t feel like paying Red Panda and all of them want to impress the crowd by hitting an NBA three” shooting numbers. Those are “Bob Cousy’s worst teammate” shooting numbers. Those are “34-year old Rodger Sherman getting mocked by neighborhood teens at the Morningside Park basketball court” numbers. (That hasn’t happened, I swear.)
Saint Mary’s had two choices. Accept that they’d lost their shooting ability as if from another planet had robbed their talent in an attempt to beat cartoon characters in a mid-major basketball game, and acknowledge that their seasons and careers were about to end because the skills they’d spent years working on had abandoned them… or keep shooting.
They kept shooting.
The Gaels hit four of their final five threes and beat the ‘Dores.
And just remember: If you know you’re good at something, keep hammering away. It’s why I keep writing these damn newsletters.